Even in a life full of shocks big and small, people typically find their own personal equilibrium over time, balancing core feelings of sadness, happiness and fear. What people feel in the immediate aftermath of even the most significant life events — the excitement of buying a house, the sudden sadness of seeing a loved one in distress, or the fear of flying after a series of airplane hijacks — isn’t a harbinger of long-term behavior.
I expect this newfound push for more distance between us to persist for at least a few years. But people are resilient, social beings, and history has shown that eventually most will return to their personal normal for behavior and traveling — getting back on the plane or the bus and going back to the store.
Air travel in particular has faced apocalyptic projections before. After the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, there was speculation the event would usher in the demise of air travel as we knew it. The attacks led to significant changes to airport security and created a short-term shock to the airline industry, as concerned customers weighed the risks and benefits of flying. However, air travel numbers that dwindled after the attacks recovered within three years to pre-9/11 levels and continued to grow for the next 15 years.
Like 9/11, the coronavirus pandemic has brought the air travel industry, and most forms of transportation, to its knees. Yet, unlike the 9/11 attacks perpetrated by a small group of terrorists, each one of us can be a silent, deadly carrier of the coronavirus, and can, in a completely unintended manner, contribute to spreading mayhem within our communities.
The nature of risk perceptions may be different from the post 9/11-period, but we are again seeing major shocks to the travel industry. Giants like Expedia are struggling after years of growth. Airlines are taking drastic measures to adjust, such as Delta’s decision to retire its entire fleet of 777 aircraft.
Trips to visit family and friends have mostly ceased, as have vacations and even outings to restaurants and movie theaters. In place of these activities, more people are working remotely, shopping online and spending time with friends and family over virtual meetings. The question becomes whether these activity-travel patterns will remain as something of a new normal after the pandemic fades — at least to a point where it is viewed as a part of our day-to-day lives like the annual flu.
It’s possible that more people will choose to work remotely and cut air travel in a post-COVID future. Concerns over sharing spaces with others on public transportation and in ride-hailing vehicles could lead to a rise in the use of personal vehicles and non-motorized modes of transit, such as walking and bicycling. Other changes to travel in the wake of COVID-19 may include:
- Transit boarding points becoming temperature and health scan points, similar to security checks at airports.
- Seat configurations in buses changing to maintain distancing, leading to the use of larger vehicles.
- Self-driving vehicles becoming attractive as a form of socially distanced and automated form of transportation.
- Trips to malls and theaters replaced by online shopping and in-home viewing.
- Maybe even a visit to the grandparents is replaced by virtual conversations.
Large-scale shifts in the amount of travel may be the case over the next three to four years, but likely not permanent. As in the post-9/11 world of air travel, I don’t expect overall travel volumes to change dramatically over an extended period of time. Over the long haul, we will find our own equilibrium.
Even in the wake of a lethal pandemic, people will continue the quest to resume social activities. Behavior studies distinctly label us humans as social animals, even to the point that total isolation is considered a form of torture. I believe the pandemic will have less of an impact on our desire for activities away from home than it will on how we participate in those activities.